How long will the mini-electric car storm last?

2022-04-26 0 By

It sold 426,400 units in the whole year, 55,700 units in a single month, topping the list for 16 consecutive months.That’s what the Hongguang MINIEV, a tiny electric car, will do in 2021.Saic-gm-wuling probably did not expect that it would inherit wuling Hongguang’s god car status in the field of new energy vehicles with hongguang MINIEV’s one-car strength, which also makes many industry experts who have been supporting “national electric vehicles” feel refreshed.Hongguang MINIEV’s micro electric vehicle storm continues, and many of its peers have jumped into this niche to try to grab a slice of the pie.Just can the market take so many tiny electric cars, and how far can they go?01 three parts of the world has one of the micro electric vehicles refers to the A00 class electric vehicles, has always been one of the main growth forces of China’s new energy vehicle market can not be ignored.According to relevant statistics, wholesale sales of A00 class electric vehicles reached 890,000 units last year, 189% more than in 2020, accounting for 26.88% of the total wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021, and 33% of the market share of pure electric passenger vehicles.It can be said that under the trend of continuous high growth of the new energy vehicle market, A00 class electric vehicles can still occupy about one-third of the market share.From 2017 to 2020, micro electric vehicles have had a roller-coaster ride.In 2017, under the stimulus of fiscal subsidies and other comprehensive factors, the market share of micro electric vehicles reached a historical peak.In that year, A00 class pure electric passenger vehicles sold a total of about 308,000 units, accounting for about 69% of the total sales of pure electric passenger vehicles in China.The most representative models are five.Data show that in 2017, the cumulative sales of A00 class pure electric passenger car sales top 5 are: BAIC EC series, annual sales of 78,079;Zhidou D2, annual sales of 42,342;Chery eQ, annual sales of 25,784 units;Zotye E200, annual sales of 16,751 units;Jiangling E200, annual sales of 15,980 units.Starting from 2018, the market share of micro electric vehicles in the national pure electric passenger vehicle market continues to decline under the circumstance of continuous decline of fiscal subsidies and continuous improvement of subsidy standard threshold.In 2018, the sales volume of A00 class pure electric passenger vehicles was 371,000 units, with the market share dropping to 49%.In 2019, the sales volume of A00 class pure electric passenger vehicles was 232,000 units, reducing the market share to 28%.From 2018 to 2019, the micro-electric vehicle market has seen a continuous decline in sales for two consecutive years, and its market share has also declined. In particular, several main models in the market have plummeted or even withdrawn from the market, triggering doubts about micro-electric vehicles in the industry.Whether it is the product of policy or market demand is a matter of debate.In July 2020, Hongguang MINIEV was born, justifying the “stop loss” of micro electric vehicles in time.Without any financial subsidies, Hongguang MINIEV sold 127,700 units in just six months, driving the annual total sales of micro electric vehicles back up to 306,000 units and its share in the national pure electric passenger car market back up to 32%.As for the future market prospect of micro electric vehicle, if it can still occupy about 25% ~ 30% market share of new energy passenger vehicles in the future, it will be a very considerable volume.Based on the estimated annual production and sales volume of 5 million new energy vehicles in 2022, the production and sales volume of micro electric vehicles in 2022 will be between 1.25 million and 1.5 million units, which is at least 40% more than the sales volume of 890,000 units in 2021.The results achieved by Hongguang MINIEV and the high expectation of market growth have triggered the emergence of a number of “MinieVs”, which have launched rival models to imitate and standard Hongguang MINIEV.At present, hongguang MINIEV is the main competitor, whether it comes from traditional car companies such as SAIC Keliwei, Dongfeng Xiaokang MINIEV, Chery QQ ice cream, Ola’s White cat, Changan Benben EV, Chery eQ, Chery Little Ant, or zero-run T03, Reading Mango, Lingbao BOX, etc.At this point, once extremely shrinking micro electric vehicle market began a thriving scene, these swarmed into the players, in this market is not to grab a walk, but to long-term “mining”.Some companies said that the A00 market is “blue ocean in blue ocean”.In recent months, Chery and BaiC have launched mini-electric vehicles.Baic has released two pure electric products for the A00 class — the three-door S3 and the five-door S5.For power, both cars have a 20kW drive motor with a maximum torque of 85N·m.In terms of driving range, BAIC S3 has versions of 120km, 170km and 200km respectively, while S5 has versions of 120km, 150km, 200km and 300km respectively. Its competitor is Hongguang MINIEV without doubt.The most representative company is Chery, which once made great achievements in China’s mini car market with QQ, and is determined to regain QQ’s former glory in the mini electric car market.At the end of last year, CHERY’s new energy intelligent MODEL QQ ice cream was launched.The new car has a total of three models, including 120km and 170km continuous driving mileage versions under NEDC comprehensive driving condition, and the price range is 29,900 ~ 43,900 yuan.It is reported that the car adopts the similar appearance design with Hongguang MINIEV, which is square box shape, two-door four-seat layout, lovely style of the front. More importantly, the power and driving range of this model are very similar to Hongguang MINIEV.Some comments said that this is clearly aimed at hongguang MINIEV.For Chery QQ ice cream, Chery is also placed high hopes.Yin Tongyue, party secretary and chairman of Chery Holding Group, said that with the acceleration of social development and urbanization, the concept of public car buying is also changing, and new energy cars have gradually become a demand product.Chery QQ ice cream inherits the fashionable and happy style of QQ. Relying on the profound technical accumulation of Chery and the continuous empowerment of iCar ecology, Chery QQ ice cream caters to users’ more segmented demand for scenes, and will be built into a benchmark product in the micro electric vehicle market.It is worth mentioning that Chery has set a target of selling 300,000 units of QQ ice cream annually in 2022, which is not too ambitious.In 2021, Chery will only sell 109,000 neVs in total, and if QQ ice Cream achieves its target, that means a 300% increase in sales can be achieved by a single electric mini.With high growth expectations and a large number of players involved in the micro electric vehicle market, is it really a blue ocean market?”Any market at any time can be a blue ocean or a red sea, depending on the competitiveness of the product.”Li Hong (pseudonym), who is in charge of a micro electric vehicle company, told China Automotive News that the key is to be the first to take the lead, just like Hongguang MINIEV.Maybe many people will think that the price of this car is low and it is not profitable, but the fact is not the case. The top-equipped model should have a profit of 7000 ~ 8000 yuan. Although the profit is thin, the profit can not be underestimated with the sales of more than 400,000 cars and the accumulated points of new energy vehicles in one year.However, THE cost control of SAIC-GM-Wuling is probably the second in the world.According to Japanese media reports, Masayoshi Yamamoto, an expert and professor at Nagoya University in Japan, was curious about the cost of A MINIEV with a maximum of 38,800 yuan. He specifically chose a MINIEV with a maximum of 38,800 yuan for disassembly and analysis, in order to find out what measures SAIC-GM-Wuling Used to set such a low price.In the end, he estimated the total cost of parts and installation for the MINIEV at about 480,000 yen.Li Lei (pseudonym), a person in charge of a low-speed electric vehicle company that acquired electric passenger vehicles through acquisition, said in an interview with China Automotive News, “Cost control is so important that immature enterprises cannot achieve the best cost control in a short period of time.Companies like SAIC-GM-Wuling also rely on years of experience, not a short period of time to learn.””Companies like Wuling can control production costs to a very low level, which is an advantage many companies can’t match, so Wuling can produce electric vehicle products at a lower price than other companies, which is a competitive advantage.”Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, told China Automotive News about the market prospects of The MINIEV, “Consumers have a strong demand for national electric vehicles, and there is definitely a market for national electric vehicles. It depends on how to better tap into it.”Last year, hongkwang MINIEV accounted for 47.9 percent of the MINIEV market.The key to Hongguang MINIEV’s success is that it is not based on replacing existing products in the market, but on opening up a new segment of the market.”For users, the core demands of Hongguang MINIEV are shown in three aspects. First, they pay attention to the cost and hope that the cost of vehicle purchase, use and maintenance is low.Second, the pursuit of convenient and practical, requiring vehicles to drive, park, easy to use, mobile Internet;Third, the safety of the vehicle is reliable, and the quality of the battery is assured and reliable, and the after-sales service is guaranteed.”Zhou Xing, brand and marketing director of SAIC-GM-Wuling, told China Automotive News.Micro electric cars will continue to grow for some time to come, but where is the ceiling for that growth?Horse car founder, chairman and CEO freeman shen said in an interview, the future of new energy automobile market structure in our country from the “dumbbell” to “fusiform” speed optimization, predicts 2030, 150000 ~ 250000 yuan price range of electric vehicles will account for about 60% of the market share, permeability will increase from 3% to 40%.Shen’s prediction is based in part on research into the history of gas-powered vehicles.In the field of fuel cars, mini cars have experienced from a place to a very small development process.For example, the market share of self-branded subcompact cars fell from 5.65% in 2010 to a pitiful 0.77% in 2016 after seven years of continuous decline.It wasn’t until 2017 that the micro-ev market began to pick up, rising to 1.27% that year.Looking at the sales data for 2022 alone, mini electric vehicles accounted for 4.14% of total passenger vehicle sales.However, it will be interesting to see if future changes in the market share of micro-electric vehicles will repeat the story of gas-powered vehicles.In an earlier interview with China Automotive News, Li jinyong judged that the market was big enough.A00 class fuel car has withdrawn from the market, this does not mean that consumers have no demand for A00 class car, but as a fuel car, A00 class is small, but its fuel consumption, repair, maintenance and other use costs are not low.On the contrary, there is actually a lot of demand for the A00.In the past two years, economic development has been under pressure, but the automobile industry has obviously shown a trend of consumption upgrading, and the sales of high-end car market has been rising.And the market below 80,000 yuan continues to shrink, not because people have no demand for models below 80,000 yuan, but because the economic downturn has a greater impact on the working class, so that the demand for a large number of cars is suppressed.The low price and low operating cost of the A00 class electric car just solve this dilemma.It can be seen that the price of A00 class cars was 50,000 ~ 70,000 yuan in the past, but hongguang MINIEV and other products pulled it to the price of 30,000 yuan or so, and the low threshold of car purchase made this category rise rapidly.However, some respondents said that companies should be cautious about developing micro-electric vehicles.No car company, the argument goes, wants to produce low-cost, low-cost, low-tech cars, even if they sell well.The big push into low-end electric cars is largely out of necessity.Even Wuling Hongguang has always brought consumers a brand impression of good quality and low price.Although this is a very positive brand image, but instead became its high-end impact bottleneck.”Wuling might not be able to sell so well even if it launched an electric car priced at more than 100,000 yuan, let alone 200,000 yuan or 300,000 yuan.The reason is that, on the one hand, Wuling lacks such technological accumulation; on the other hand, the brand image of Wuling has almost been solidified, and it will be difficult for wuling to go forward in the short term.”An industry observer said, “It is not unreasonable for a company with research and development capabilities like Chery to seize the market, but it does not feel that it wants to make a big impact in the high-end field of new energy vehicles.”It is highly likely that the company, which should be an upwardly mobile company, will fall further and further behind its competitors by focusing on the micro electric vehicle sector.”In fact, electric car companies like BYD have stopped focusing so much on tiny electric cars and started to focus on the high-end.It is reported that BYD will release a new high-end brand in the first half of 2022, and the first model will be released in the second half of the year, the car will be a hard delivery suv, priced at around 500,000 ~ 1 million yuan.Wuling Hongguang may only have one. If other automobile enterprises take a long-term view, they should not take micro electric vehicles as a key market segment.Disclaimer: The above content is reproduced from new energy vehicles news EV, the content does not represent the position of this platform.National Energy Information Platform Tel: 010-65367702, email: hz@people-energy.com.cn, Address: People’s Daily, No.2 Jintai West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing